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Prediction for CME (2023-03-12T19:24:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2023-03-12T19:24Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/24210/-1
CME Note: CME going South in SOHO LASCO and SSW in STEREO A COR2. Its source is a gradual eruption of complex, mostly longitudinally oriented filament centered approximately around ~S25E20 (filament seems to extend from at least S5 to S50) and is seen starting to erupt in AIA 304 and 193 around 2023-03-12T18:30Z. Possible arrival is marked by an increase in B_total from 8 nT to 22.5 nT, reaching a maximum of 26 nT at 2023-03-15T05:02Z. Accompanied by an increase in speed from approximately 420 km/s to 550 km/s, an increase in density, and increase in temperature. This arrival could alternatively be attributed to a predicted glancing blow from 2023-03-13T10:53Z CME (possibly more less likely due to the earlier observed arrival at STEREO A). LASSOS discussion summary about this signature: this is likely a strong glancing blow from a CME, with a sheath and a shock-like structure.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2023-03-15T03:48Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-03-15T23:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 20.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: Other (SIDC)
Prediction Method Note:

From: SIDC Ursigram: Issued: 2023 Mar 14 1231 UTC

"A filament eruption in the southeastern quadrant was observed on March 12
around 17:45UTC. The associated CME appears in SoHO/LASCO C2 coronagraph
data from 19:00UTC onwards. The CME is directed to the south and the bulk
of the CME is not expected to be Earth directed. However, a glancing blow
of the shock may impact Earth from late on March 15."

Lead Time: 15.85 hour(s)
Difference: -19.20 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Mattie Anastopulos (M2M Office) on 2023-03-14T11:57Z

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